← The Record
Tuesday, September 29, 2026First edition · The read holds. Confidence 89/100.
What changed
The Rays held their established baseline at 98-64 and the American League's No. 1 seed. The new developments are narrow: right-hander Jake Woodford cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Durham on Sept. 28, then elected free agency on Sept. 29, according to Tampa Bay Times reporter Marc Topkin via MLB Trade Rumors. DRaysBay reported that right-hander Freddy Peralta won September Pitcher of the Month. The first two home games are listed for Oct. 3 at 6:30 p.m. and Oct. 5 at 8 p.m. Confidence holds because the record and run totals did not change.
Why it matters
The Tampa Bay Rays finished 98-64 and claimed the American League's No. 1 seed. Third baseman Junior Caminero gave a contact-driven club a hammer, and the pitching made it stick.
What to watch
Watch for the official ALDS rotation order, Bryan Baker's workload after 65 appearances and whether Caminero brings his thump into October.
What would change our mind
Official news sidelining Rasmussen or Nick Martinez, Caminero or catcher Liam Hicks before the ALDS would turn Tampa Bay from a frontrunner into a fragile one.
The counterevidence
- Tampa Bay's plus-86 run differential trails the New York Yankees' plus-138 and sits close to the Boston Red Sox's plus-78. That kills any claim that the Rays steamrolled the league.
- Rays center fielder Cedric Mullins hit .205, and shortstop Jorge Mateo hit .203 with negative WAR. October pitching can hunt those two holes.
- Rays right-hander Freddy Peralta finished 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP despite winning the September monthly award reported by DRaysBay. One hot month does not erase 169 innings of traffic.
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